Modelling uncertainties for the loadbearing capacity of corroded simply supported RC beams

The probabilistic assessment of structures damaged by corrosion calls for deterministic models of the degradation of the structural performance and probabilistic models accounting for the uncertainties in material properties, geometry and models used in the reliability analysis. This paper describes the development of a probabilistic model of the uncertainties that arise from the prediction of the loadbearing capacity of reinforced concrete structures damaged by corrosion of the reinforcement. The investigation focuses on the flexural failure of simply supported beams suffering from chloride-induced corrosion. The loss of steel cross-sectional area, the reduction in strength and ductility of the corroded bars, the loss of bond between reinforcement and concrete and the cracking of the concrete cover are taken into account in a non-linear finite element analysis. The comparison between experimental results and numerical predictions of the failure load allows the quantification of the model uncertainty according to the framework proposed by the Joint Committee on Structural Safety. A Bayesian updating methodology is proposed to account for prior knowledge and experimental results.