Probabilistic safety analysis of loadbearing bar structures according to second-order theory for the combination of time-dependent loads

The article describes a method for the probabilistic risk assessment of loadbearing bar structures according to second-order theory without having to indicate expressly the limit state equation. The load combination is also considered in the course of the calculation. Time-dependent loads are modelled as pulse processes with a rectangular form. The sequence of load renewals has a Poisson distribution and the magnitude of the load is subjected to a Pearson distribution. The distribution of the maximum values of the safety-relevant load reaction is obtained by means of the Monte Carlo simulation. The basis is a generalization of the deformation method. The probability of cross-section failure is determined for an exemplary loadbearing structure. The probability is sensitive to the distribution parameters of the processes. For certain loading constellations, this analysis contradicts the safety concept of building practice.