Characterization of uncertainty (probabilistic models) in verification of unreinforced masonry shear wall / Charakterisierung der Unschärfe (probabilistische Modelle) beim Nachweis von Wandscheiben aus unbewehrtem Mauerwerk

The model uncertainty has significant role in determination of safety factor. Eurocode has been considered partial factor covering uncertainties in the resistance model. Moreover, the model uncertainty has important role in full probabilistic verification. A stochastic analysis may yield to realistic results, only if the uncertainties have been involved in the calculation, properly.
The uncertainty in predicted load-carrying model may be identified by comparing the observed (experimental records) load-carrying behaviour with the predicted value. Some general recommendations for considering uncertainty in probabilistic verifications are available in literature. In this study, the deviation of predicted values according to DIN EN 1996-1-1/NA model of masonry shear wall from test results has been derived. The best-fitted distribution with associated statistical parameters (type of distribution, mean and coefficient of variation) has been proposed for uncertainty model. The uncertainty models have been compared with recommendations in the literature.